Saturday, October 25, 2014

Could non-citizens decide the November election?

Could non-citizens decide the November election? - The Washington Post
Could control of the Senate in 2014 be decided by illegal votes cast by non-citizens?
....How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections?
More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. 
Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. 
Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.
Estimated Voter Turnout by Non-Citizens
20082010
Self reported and/or verified38 (11.3%)13 (3.5%)
Self reported and verified5 (1.5%)N.A.
Adjusted estimate21 (6.4%)8 (2.2%)
Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. 
Non-citizen votes could have given Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. 

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