Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Beware: Putin the wounded animal

Beware: Putin the wounded animal—commentary:
"Vladimir Putin is not a good man and not a good leader.
There, I said it … and the U.S. government basically began saying that eight months ago, when it joined with other Western nations in imposing a series of economic sanctions on Putin's Russia.
The sanctions hurt Russia a bit, but now oil's freefall is causing the ruble to crash and slamming that nation with a guaranteed recession or even depression.
This would be something worthy of extreme vigilance for the U.S. government and investors alike even if Russia were a true democracy governed by at least semi-responsible leaders.
But it's worse.
Much worse.
Vladimir Putin has always been a lot more like a petty Latin American dictator than a statesman. Think about it:
He made his bones in the secret police, consolidated his power with a ring of super wealthy backers, and he claps political opponents in jail at a moment's notice.
In short, Putin is like a Augusto Pinochet or a Juan PerĂ³n … but with much more steely resolve, a massive military, and nuclear bombs.
But even with Putin's extremely visible and frightening track record before us, it's clear the Obama administration and even the investment community is still not prepared for the extent of the damage the Russian leader can unleash on his own people, on his neighbors, and on the U.S. financial markets.
There is nothing more dangerous than a wounded animal.
Vladimir Putin is wounded — and he's not known for holding back.
His entire adventure in Ukraine this year is example of just how destructive and unpredictable Putin can be, and that all happened when oil was still trading at $100 a barrel.
So what could he do now?
For all we know, Putin has already done a lot of the following things, but here's just a partial list:
1. Launch another attack on Ukraine or another neighboring nation
2. Cut off energy supplies to the rest of Europe
3. Launch an all-out cyber war on Western and U.S. companies and government agencies
4. Nationalize foreign-owned or -controlled businesses inside Russia"

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