Sunday, June 19, 2016

Which Labor Market Data Should You Believe?

Which Labor Market Data Should You Believe? - The New York Times:
"When the unemployment rate falls below 5 percent, it usually means things are going pretty well. It was 4.7 percent in May, a level last seen in November 2007.
A different measure of the economy’s health, however, is beeping and flashing red.
It says that labor market conditions have deteriorated with each passing month this year.
In May, it fell to its lowest level in seven years.
Called the Labor Market Conditions Index, it has been billed as a more complete measurement than that old war horse, the unemployment rate.
There are two possible explanations for the index’s decline: one somewhat comforting, and the other scary.
...But there are also some pretty strong reasons for skepticism.
My personal favorite:

  • In 2007, about 88 percent of men between the ages of 25 and 54 were working. Now, roughly 85 percent of such men are working.

That’s a difference of about two million men, most of whom probably would like jobs.
The scary explanation?
Job growth is slowing because the economy is losing steam.
...The Federal Reserve introduced the new measure of labor market health a few months after Janet Yellen became the Fed’s chairwoman in 2014.
It created the index because the unemployment rate is too simple. 
Even the name is too simple.
It doesn’t actually measure unemployment; it counts only people who are actively looking for work. Moreover, a low unemployment rate doesn’t tell you how many part-time workers would like full-time gigs.
It doesn’t tell you how many full-time workers would like a better job at higher pay..."
Read on!

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