Sunday, April 18, 2010

Climategate: a scandal that won’t go away

Climategate: a scandal that won’t go away
"If you were faced with by far the biggest bill of your life, would you not want to be confident that there was a very good reason why you should pay it?
That is why we need to know just how far we can trust the science behind the official view that the world is threatened with catastrophe by global warming – because the measures proposed by our politicians to avert this supposed disaster threaten to transform our way of life out of recognition and to land us with easily the biggest bill in history.
(The Climate Change Act alone, says the Government, will cost us all £18 billion every year until 2050.)"

.....The crown jewels of the IPCC’s case that the world faces catastrophic warming have been all those graphs based on tree rings which purport to show that temperatures have lately been soaring to levels never known before in history – thus eradicating all the evidence that the world was hotter than today during the Medieval Warm Period, long before any rise in CO2 levels.
Best known of these graphs, of course, was Michael Mann’s “hockey stick”, comprehensively discredited by the expert Canadian statistician Stephen McIntyre and Professor Ross McKitrick.

But the IPCC was able to defend its case with the aid of another set of “hockey sticks”, based on different tree rings, produced by Mann’s close allies at the CRU.
The most widely quoted of the Climategate emails was that from the CRU’s director, Philip Jones, saying that he had used “Mike’s Nature trick” to “hide the decline”.

If there was anything in the CRU’s record which a proper inquiry should have addressed it was the story behind this email, because what it highlighted was the device used by the CRU to get round the fact that its tree-ring data hopelessly failed to show the result the warmist establishment wanted.

When their Siberian tree rings showed temperatures in the late 20th century sharply dropping rather than rising, the “trick” used by Prof Jones and his colleague Dr Keith Briffa, copied from Mike Mann’s own “hockey stick”, was simply to delete the downward curve shown by the tree rings, replacing them with late 20th-century temperature data to show the dramatic warming they wanted.

The significance of this sleight of hand can scarcely be exaggerated.

Why, in using this misleading graph, did the IPCC not explain the trick that had been played by its leading scientists?
If tree rings were so inadequate in reflecting 20th-century temperatures, why should they be relied on to reflect temperatures in earlier centuries?
Why, when fresh Siberian tree ring data came to light, making a nonsense of the CRU’s earlier temperature reconstructions, did the CRU simply ignore the new data?

Anyone who has followed the meticulous analysis of this curious story by Steve McIntyre on his Climate Audit website might well conclude that we are looking here at a complete travesty of proper scientific procedure, matched only by the bizarre methods used by Mann himself to construct his original hockey stick.
Yet these are the men, Mann, Jones and Briffa, who acted as the “lead authors” of the key chapters of the IPCC’s 2001 and 2007 reports.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

"If your basement is slowly flooding, and the plumber says it is going to cost money to fix, will cost more the longer you wait, and if you wait too long,will probably wreck your house, you get several other opinions from plumbers and they more or less agree.

That is why we need to know just how far we can trust this whole "plumbing" thing behind the official view that your house is threatened with catastrophe. – because the measures proposed by the plumbers to avert this supposed disaster threaten to cost money, and we only have their word that it will cost 10-100x more to deal with the damage than to fix it in the first place.

In don't really understand the problem, but I've read a dummies guide to plumbing and I don't think it said anything about mold damage and rot so I think the plumber's are all lying and I'd rather let the problem get worse.....