Sunday, June 26, 2016

Traditional polls got Brexit wrong. Pollfish and other smartphone platforms got it right

Traditional polls got Brexit wrong. Pollfish and other smartphone platforms got it right — Quartz:
Poll after poll predicted the Remain vote would win the day and there would be no Brexit.
Almost all of them got it wrong.
Thursday’s referendum left the UK preparing to leave the European Union, and many pollsters wondering what went wrong with their efforts to gauge public sentiment.
The polling industry’s crisis of confidence is fueled by several recent failures to forecast major outcomes. 
From British Conservatives’ victory over Labour in 2015 to Trump’s unexpected dominance of the Republican presidential primary race (you can read celebrity pollster Nate Silver’s 5,379-word mea culpa on that here), well-respected polling outfits seem to keep getting it wrong.
...One survey method, however, has proved more accurate than the rest, and is promising to become the future of polling: internet and mobile phone polling..."

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