"When people read about a poll, they are often told something like this:
- Pollsters call a random group of people.
- Though small, we can infer this group is a representative sample of the U.S. population because it was selected randomly.
- Then, if we know the sample size, we can calculate the margin of error, which helps us understand how likely the survey results are to capture reality.
- This Statistics 101 version frequently carries a disclaimer to the effect: “These findings come from a nationally representative sample of 2,000 Americans with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2%.”
Here is the uncomfortable truth.
Though the disclaimer remains, nearly nobody does the textbook version of polling anymore...
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