The polls are all over the place and useless 18 months out, but we do have some indicators.
The 2020 election, and subsequent ones, show Trump has a sub-majority ceiling.
That’s a problem and it’s not likely to change – he threaded the needle once and maybe he can do it again, but hoping to get lucky twice is not a plan.
- The fact is that some people, including Republicans who should know better, irrationally hate him and will never vote for him.
- Of course, some Republicans will never vote for anyone else.
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